JB was right. It was a rough estimate. Toss the first three efforts, two on dirt, and first on turf. You then have four grass races to deal with. Now forgiving the layoff effort, you have three to look at and Overnightsensation ran a 5 in one of those three.

I said 30% primarily because she did run that competitive figure once and as I've said in the past the most likely indication that a horse will run a competitive figure is the fact that it's done it before. So she gets credit for that effort. But as I said in the Rotw her overall pattern was suspect. But she was lightly raced. So I dampened the prospect slightly to 30%. It's easy to say now that that was a rose-glassed projection, but it was an estimate.

A 5 from the 2-hole getting weight had to give her some shot. Moscow Burning had the only close turf figures in the recent past and was a deserving favorite as I stated. But with conditions, I thought she was vulnerable. Others were either slower, or were dirt horses with some back turf figures, making the reads more dubious. So I came up with again a 3 in 10 chance that the 5 would be good.

Multiply the chances of running the figure, .3, by its winning chances, .3, and you come up with .09, which converts to about 11-1--1/.09.

These were rough estimates borne by experience. It's a useful exercise to get a sense what's fair value and, hence, underlays and overlays. It's a step in generating your own odds line. But frankly, it takes some experience, to make accurate lines.







Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/01/2006 03:22PM by TGAB.