Andy Beyer is a very methodical handicapper. He really settles into his method and in this day and age it hog ties him. It worked for him 30 years ago. But its the 21st century now and things have changed. I really hope he picks a Derby winner. I know he's dying to come up with one. Who knows, maybe once he figures out how to pick one, they'll start coming in droves.

As far as polytrack goes, can anyone imagine it at Saratoga or Del Mar? Or Belmont or Santa Anita? I agree with Andy, there is a great deal of handicapping expertise that goes into the surface. I really don't want to see all tracks have the exact same "consistency". It might take some of the edge away from those that watch/study tracks closely.

Is polytrack really safer? It would seem prudent to give it at least a decade to be exposed to the elements and deteriorate before we all jump to the conclusion its safer than traditional tracks. In fact 20 years might be a more fitting test. After it has existed for a generation, we can begin to discuss installing it at Racings Mecca.

The Santa Anita Handicap approaches. Early word is that High Limit will be the morning line favorite. If High Limit ran a negative 1 or better in the Strub, he should be a very big factor. (Though I believe Lava Man has earned faster figures.) Theres always the probability that High Limit did run a negative 1. Though if he did I'm currently inclined to believe that "Bob and John" ran a fast figure also. Then again, High Limit could bounce off a Negative 1. If he finishes 3rd or 4th beaten five lengths what will they say? "He bounced" I suppose. I guess we'll have to wait and see before we propose conclusions.

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have mixed feelings on Andy Beyer for a number
> of reasons. Yes he is one of the pioneers of
> explaining speed figures to the general public and
> his excellent books have been a real boon to
> handicappers by explaining his methodology. On the
> other hand, he is one of the worst handicappers in
> the country and is notorious for his long list of
> losing Derby picks threw out the years.
> His columns are usually insightful and
> entertaining reading but in his article on
> Polytrack he has made a perfect ass of himself. He
> admits that Polytrack is a superior racing
> surfaced praised by trainers, jockeys (and the
> horses if they could talk) because it is safer and
> offers a much fairer surface. The number of
> serious breakdowns has dropped dramatically at
> Turfway since it's installation. Unfair post
> position advantages and dead or live rails are
> gone and neither closers nor pacesetters have an
> unfair edge.
> Beyer finds this boring and claims it makes it too
> easy to pick winners. Quite frankly, Andy needs
> all the help he can get in that area. There will
> still be plenty of variables left and handicapping
> will remain a huge intellectual challenge. Mr.
> Beyer is afraid the game will become boring. Yeah,
> there’s nothing like seeing horses breakdown in
> front of your eyes to make the sport exciting,
> right Andy?
>
>
>
> Bob
>