Re: Andy Beyer, Polytracks and the Santa Anita Handicap (580 Views)
Posted by:
bobphilo (IP Logged)
Date: March 01, 2006 01:29AM
Rich and Chuckles,
As someone who has a professional and personal passion for statistcs and research methods I used the Turfway example as only that, an example, but English tracks and training centers which have used the surface for years all report similar results. Abosutely no contradictory findings have been reported.
The probability, or p value, of this being by chance alone are highly remote.
What is also significant is that so many trainers whose concern for their horses is matched only by their conservatisim and reaction to change are overwhelmingly in favor of the surface. Of course, no one expects every track to go Poly overnight, but If I had control of a track, I would opt for what I believed was the better surface and we are seeing track after track make the same decision the more they learn about it. I'm sure that at the first sign of trouble the tracks will play it safe and bail. I doubt that will happen and progress will continue since at this point the overwhelming evidence is in Polytrack's favor.
Lets see what happens in the future. I'm always ready for surprises.
Bob