David,

I can see this race going one of three ways.

1) Sharp Humor Wires the Field
2) Sharp Humor and Barbaro and Flashy Bull and Saint Augustus push each other into strong half and 3/4 fractions and Rehoboth runs them down
3) Barbaro is Class of Field sits off Sharp Humor as that one proves he's not a 9F horse and get jump on rest of the field.

4 horses just don't fit on TG Figs or on paper for that mater:
Hesanoldsalt(ready for Claimers),Charming Image(cheap Claimer), Doc Cheney,Sams Ace(why ship?),. That leaves 7.

High Blues runs consistent figs but is just 1/8. Not the tyoe that wins this.Hesanoldsalt beat this one already ..do I need to say more? Can complete a tri or super. Should run in the 4-6 range.

Flashy Bull Looks more 7F 8F type horse to me, and 1/8 lifetime enough said. Projects between 3-5.

Saint Augustus Wires a 4 horse field that included Doc Cheney. Saint Augustus projects to run between 3.2 and 8.

Sharp Humor 4 for 6. Only Legit Speed in race stretching out. What did we learn last week at TP? Not like this one is not bread to handle this distance either. May be second best value in race. I can see a W2W job here. Can see him between 2-5 range. 20% Chance to win this.

Sunriver. Connections are good. Also beaten by Hesanoldsalt!!! Last was nice race against over hyped Superfly and already dismissed High Blues. has lots of variablility to run between a 1.2 and 5.

Barbaro is the mystery horse. Great on Turf as we all know. TG Figs have been as consistant as any 3 yo ive seen in recent years. We all need to see a Dry Dirt race before we can committ to fav at even money. Still think this one finishes 1 2 or 3 in this race. Can see a 1-4 range here. Hard to say what you'll get but for sure an underlay. Worth a bet against.

My Choice to key in this race is a bit of a stretch in Rehoboth. Last two were very Good. Was coming very good very late in last despite troubled trip. Now goes back to JJ vs Sean B (king of Chicago for a reason ie he couldn't compete in NY). Recently Paired 3.2's could indicate a forward move is still there. Can see this one running between a 0.5 up to a 7 so it's a dicey proposition but with good value. I'm keying this one in exacta's with Barbaro,Sunriver,and Sharp Humor. Keying in Tri's/supers with those three, and then underneath in tri's only with Barbaro and Sharp Humor. I'll have to include Flashy Bull in mix somehow, but see him more third than second.

I can only see those four a possible winners and those 5 in supers but going for value play it's Rehoboth.

NC Tony









Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2006 01:17AM by NoCarolinaTony.