Re: Florida Derby (507 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 01, 2006 12:55PM
bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'd be very careful factoring the pace as
> "quick"
> > when Gulfstream is wet. Theres been more
> than
> > enough freaky wet track results and "on
> their
> > face" scalding fractions to be skeptical
> about
> > fast pace from those races. In other words,
> > Barbaro has not seen a true pace scenario
> with
> > better dirt horses yet.
> >
> > Quick run to the first turn. Careful trainer.
> If
> > he's not 4th or 5th four wide on the bend
> I'll
> > vote for Republicans again in '06.
> >
> I had the pace quick relative to the final time
> and it's effect on the horses in that race. You
> have to take that into considerstion. Anyway, who
> says Matz hasn't taught him to rate. He's a
> considerable horseman. I am concerned about the
> bad post however. Hopefully he'll work out a good
> trip.
> You voted Republican last time? So your the reason
> we're in this mess.
> I'll have to keep that in mind next time I read
> your selections. LOL
>
> Bob
>
>
I subscribe to the Harvey Pack Theory of handicapping and that is "A Post Time Favorite should not be favored being asked to do something he has never done before."
Obviously, that goes out the window in the Derby with the Derby distance, but in the case of the Florida Derby anyone betting Barbaro is asking him to overcome adversity and rate for the first time. I don't let my money ride on a horse being asked to do that type of thing as the favorite. Which is NOT to say he absolutely Can't do it. On the probabilities though its a poor bet. He's not even the fastest horse on figures in the race.
I see four horses in the mix
Flashy Bull
Rehobeth
Sunriver
High Blues
Its a question of partial keying and eliminating lower probability combinations.
Rags are clearly wrong about Rehobeth
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2006 12:57PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.
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