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Re: Florida Derby (507 Views)
Posted by: Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 01, 2006 12:55PM

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I'd be very careful factoring the pace as
> "quick"
> > when Gulfstream is wet. Theres been more
> than
> > enough freaky wet track results and "on
> their
> > face" scalding fractions to be skeptical
> about
> > fast pace from those races. In other words,
> > Barbaro has not seen a true pace scenario
> with
> > better dirt horses yet.
> >
> > Quick run to the first turn. Careful trainer.
> If
> > he's not 4th or 5th four wide on the bend
> I'll
> > vote for Republicans again in '06.
> >
> I had the pace quick relative to the final time
> and it's effect on the horses in that race. You
> have to take that into considerstion. Anyway, who
> says Matz hasn't taught him to rate. He's a
> considerable horseman. I am concerned about the
> bad post however. Hopefully he'll work out a good
> trip.
> You voted Republican last time? So your the reason
> we're in this mess.
> I'll have to keep that in mind next time I read
> your selections. LOL
>
> Bob
>
>

I subscribe to the Harvey Pack Theory of handicapping and that is "A Post Time Favorite should not be favored being asked to do something he has never done before."

Obviously, that goes out the window in the Derby with the Derby distance, but in the case of the Florida Derby anyone betting Barbaro is asking him to overcome adversity and rate for the first time. I don't let my money ride on a horse being asked to do that type of thing as the favorite. Which is NOT to say he absolutely Can't do it. On the probabilities though its a poor bet. He's not even the fastest horse on figures in the race.

I see four horses in the mix

Flashy Bull
Rehobeth
Sunriver
High Blues

Its a question of partial keying and eliminating lower probability combinations.

Rags are clearly wrong about Rehobeth






Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2006 12:57PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.



Subject Written By Posted
Florida Derby (931 Views) congaree1 03/31/2006 02:22PM
Re: Florida Derby (643 Views) shanahan 03/31/2006 02:38PM
Re: Florida Derby (602 Views) davidrex 03/31/2006 06:02PM
Re: Florida Derby (575 Views) davidrex 03/31/2006 06:34PM
Re: Florida Derby (569 Views) NoCarolinaTony 04/01/2006 01:06AM
Re: Florida Derby (562 Views) davidrex 04/01/2006 08:15AM
Re: Florida Derby (472 Views) rando 04/01/2006 10:46AM
Re: Florida Derby (492 Views) bobphilo 04/01/2006 11:25AM
Re: Florida Derby (541 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/01/2006 11:35AM
Re: Florida Derby (484 Views) spa 04/01/2006 12:05PM
Re: Florida Derby (546 Views) bobphilo 04/01/2006 12:08PM
Re: Florida Derby (511 Views) bobphilo 04/01/2006 12:55PM
Re: Florida Derby (507 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/01/2006 12:55PM
Re: Florida Derby (509 Views) bobphilo 04/01/2006 01:04PM
Re: Florida Derby (495 Views) richiebee 04/01/2006 01:38PM
Re: Florida Derby (518 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 04/01/2006 01:40PM
Re: Florida Derby (500 Views) bobphilo 04/01/2006 02:26PM
Re: Florida Derby (507 Views) bobphilo 04/01/2006 02:22PM


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