big18741 Wrote:
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> Anyone else think Strong Contender beats up on
> this field?
>

Will preface this by stating that I'm not looking at Thorofigs. That said, its hard to say what the betting angle is upon Strong Contender.

His connections are very high upon him. Ward is a good horseman. They've had Monarchos and a Notebook colt whose name I have forgotten. I make him about 4th fastest upon back figures. In that regard Strong Contenders two efforts came upon very glib surfaces with low variants and they were single turn events. Now he's stepping up into company thats pretty serious about trying to make the Derby while this guy has been biding his time.

I'm not a believer in the lightly raced horse for a number of reasons. To some extent I attribute this new approach to TGraph and others, "Save the horse, space his efforts, watch the bounce." Blasmphemy. Abject Blasphemy. If you don't have enough horse to run three times as a juvenile and three or four times as a 3YO BEFORE the Derby, then you my friend don't have enough horse period. Now, there are exceptions to that, but exceptions are not a modus operandi.

Strong Contender is not at Hallandale any longer. Keeneland played fairly yesterday. Wire Jobbers looked good. Five wide looked good too. The track was not glib. This is his first effort vs. more accomplished horses and even in that he caught a fairly soft spot. Does anyone really think First Samurai and Bluegrass Cat are serious Derby horses? That said, a wager upon Strong Contender is a wager that he will be better going longer against tougher horses than he has faced sprinting.

I don't think the Bluegrass was on this horse's agenda. I think he wanted a really soft spot in the Lane's End and missed it. He has been either mismanaged or gingerly managed to this point. It doesn't mean he can't win. I don't bet significant money on this track, but will you get 5-1 on Strong Contender? Probably not.

The horse that I find interesting is Sinister Minister. This track can favor speed and that raceway at Golden Gate usually produces horses with a quick foot. Many times horses improve second start at two turns and that last effort, albeit in a short field, was not half bad. Cause to Believe is held in high regard by his connections and getting crushed in his last may not have been that bad a race. If it is a speed track, I'm gonna look for Sinister Minister to cut the heart out of Strong Contender and bury it at about the quarter pole.

First Samurai the favorite to factor.