This Saturday's Bluegrass Stakes could be an interesting race, despite the obvious speed bias that seems to be present, as usual, at Keenland.

Bluegrass Cat looks like the most likely winner to me. He got down to a "1" last time, supposedly throwing a shoe on the turn. The "1" makes him co-second fastest, tied with Strong Contender and slower than First Samurai's best race.

First Samurai is certainly fast enough to win, but you can't like his 6 point backward move last time and expecting to return to near his best off that race is hard to take, especially at 8-5 morning line.

Strong Contender is lightly raced, got down to a "1" last time in only his second start, so he could be "any kind". However, I don't like the circumstances under which he earned the "1", alone on the lead, loping to a 23.4 first quarter mile figure, going a mile at Gulfstream. I know a "figure is a figure is a figure", but not for me.

Bluegrass Cat has only improved 2 points off his 2 year old top and will be 3rd off the layoff, with a nice inside post to ensure stalking position. With only that 2 point improvement from his 2 year old top, this horse could go faster. He is already marginally fast enough to compete the 1st Saturday in May, but if he makes a forward move, which I think is coming, he could be "one of the ones" in 3 weeks.

At a little better than 21-1 at one offshore sports book, I will take a shot at Bleugrass Cat in the Derby futures as well.

Good luck,

Jim