Michael,

Good point. I bought into the Bandini race last and the negative 4, thinking he that as a "pletcher horse", he could run back in 3 weeks and not bounce.

I think there is a difference between the two though and it is the 2 year old foundation and figures this year. Bluegrass Cat had a "3" last year and has already ran down to a "1" this year, which is steady improvement. If he moves forward very much tomorrow (say 3 points or more), then I would not be happy with my futures bet. But he only moves forward a point or two, he is not as likely to bounce and still could have a small forward move.

Bandini had almost no 2 year old foundation, if I remember, then Jerry gave him slow figures before the Bluegrass stakes (although Beyer had him faster, as did Rags, if I remember right). Then Bandini had something like a 6 point forward move in the Bluegrass STakes.

In looking closer at the race tomorrow, I guess it won't be such a good betting race. Even though you have a 9 horse field, too many throwouts. We could see First Samurai at even money, Bluegrass Cat 2-1 and Strong Hero 3-1. The price horse that could be interesting is the Baffert horse, ridden by Gomez. Keenland has been awful with the speed bias this week already and I would bet dollars to donuts that the Baffert horse sets the fractions. he won't get "loose" since the three top contenders all have some speed as well, but Gomez/Baffert will be cuttting out the fractions, and the way that track has played this week, that is the place to be.

Jim