Looking at the Major Derby Prep Races: Here's how I would rate the strength of the preps.

San Felipe: A+ (The strongest of the preps)
Santa Anita Derby: B (Very solid, though small field)
Wood: B (I think this is a much better race than most think)
Arkansas Derby: C+/B- (large field, decent quality)
Blue Grass: C (much weaker than the Beyer would indicate)
Fla Derby: C+ (Ok, but not great)
Santa Catalina: C+ (Ok)
Illinois Derby: C (I don't think too much of this race)

My List of Contenders (in order):
1.AP Warrior: Still must improve, though there's real potential and much value here. (Best Value)
2.Bob and John: Rapidly improving, and he will run a new top in the Derby -- he just LOOKS like a Derby Winner to me. (Most Likely to Succeed)
3. Point Determined: Also improving and will run a new top -- really hard to fault. (Best not to ignore)
4. Brother Derek: Complete class, though you've seen what he's got -- he may pair up, but he won't go forward any more. He was mature in March. And has maintained his form -- I'll probably take a betting stand against him. He is the best of the the three year olds so far, no question (His derby odds may not justify his chance for me).
5. Lawyer Ron: Similar Story, made a huge improvement early in the winter and has maintained. I always liked him, but I just have a feeling he's not quite as good as some of the others though he's an iron horse and a throwback!
6. Jazil: I do like is Wood race, he looks like he'll handle the distance, but I'm thinking a minor award would be his limit.

Horses (who will take some action) I don't like much at all are Barbaro (a big clunky brute, not handy or fluid enough for me), BlueGrass Cat (never sure what all the fuss was about), Cause To Believe (a decent sort, but just not good enough), Sweetnorthernsaint (can't fault in any logical way, I just don't think he's this good. Sinster Minister (I wouldn't bet a dime on him in the derby- he might be a good bet to finish last though with his rank running style).

Ok That's it. I can handicap the race for three weeks and I won't be any clearer. Good Luck and God Bless to all.