The Competition and the BOUNCE (612 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2006 08:45PM
kev Wrote:
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> I got it from the Rag's site Len wrote this
>
> "The BG winner did run off the charts (minus 1
> 3/4) and given his history I certainly agree that
> he's a primo bounce candidate on three weeks rest
> in the Derby."
>
Sinister Ministers "history"? I wonder what history the inimitable Len is referring to? The horse has only run five times:
His first race, he broke well but then ran wide with the pack before fading.
His second race they dropped him for a tag and from an outside post and after a pace battle he ran as well as the winner in his first start factoring the track variant.
His third race and first start for Baffert he failed to break cleanly for the first time and ran wide into a buzz saw named Too Much Bling. Was it bounce that caused the bad break? Unfitness? Fatigue? Maybe, but I don't think so.
Fourth race was the rail-banging incident vs. Cause to Believe. There was a hefty jump in the level of competition there and he came close to pulling it off. I guess Len anticipated a bounce in the Bluegrass because he rated Sinister Minister 6th, below Bluegrass Cat, Strong Contender and First Samurai. I guess Len was all over the Sinister Minister bounce play then as he is now.
Some folks keyed Sinister Minister to win Len. When you pick a winner, it’s a heckuva lot easier to factor the exotics.
Nevertheless, nice call on the S.M. Derby bounce. You've staked out a position that the 7th betting choice can't win.
Attaboy