NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Didn't the west coast horses invade Aqueduct and
> feast on the east Wood day?
>
> So if lets say for argument sake SM is the west
> coast's (or Baffert's) third string, what does it
> say for the Florida/NY east coast horses in
> general? Stong Contender BG CAt and 1st Sam were
> all considered top notch going into the
> Bluegrass.
>
> At this point I', leaning to the west coast horses
> over the east coast, and the professional Lawyer
> Ron (who may be a little slow). Don't know what to
> make of Sweetnorthernsaint yet. My estemed fellow
> poster Michael D is high on this one, so I have to
> take note. I thought the Hawthorne race was won
> over a very very weak feild so I don't know what
> you can take from that.
>
> NC Tony

Tony, to my knowledge the only West Coast invaders Wood Day were Bob and John and Too Much Bling. Shipping is expensive and obviously you have to think you have a good reason to ship. Clearly Baffert made the right calls with Sinister Minister and Bob and John, but Too Much Bling had already been out east. He's not ducked anyone. Its been more a matter of him coming to hand in my opinion. He lost to First Samurai once. Now I think he'd crush him.

As far Sinister being Baffert's third string, I'm not sure of that. With hindsight you have to figure he would have run a dilly in the Santa Anita Derby, but by shipping two out of town Baffert took a 2nd in the S.A. Derby and two firsts and got 3 horses into the Derby. Baffert also said the following:

Rafael Bejarano would ride Point Determined, Bafffert said, with Espinoza on Sinister Minister and Garrett Gomez aboard Bob and John, although that wasn't engraved in stone as of Wednesday morning. "It depends on what happens between now and then," Baffert said. "I'm going to go with my gut."


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33107

Which leads me to believe that Baffert is jockeying the jockeys to suit his horses and that the commitments may be far less bilateral than many think. The "Gut" comment interests me. Obviously Espinoza knows his way around the Churchill oval and will have the proper timing for the race. Additionally, he was able to conserve a previous horses speed somewhat and that is clearly something Baffert is factoring.

As far as the West Coast horses being dominant, I'm less sure of that. Personally I'm predicting a mega flop for the wise guy horse A.P. Warrior and I've downgraded Brother Derek substantially. I'm getting very bad vibes about him, even though I think hes a good horse in the right circumstances.

Baffert goes with his gut, I don't ignore the vibes.