bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey CTC
>
> My guess is indeed two different scenarios.
>
> Bellamy Road was a bad ass Graded stakes winner
> who won his 3yo debut by fifteen lengths. He won
> the Wood easily, but worked "soft" at Churchill
> and came unglued.
>
> Sinister Minister had an acceptable debut, behind
> a runaway winner on a sealed track, Then, three
> weeks later Becerra put him up for sale!!! True
> he won the Bluegrass, and ran fast, but he is
> going backwards. He finished up on his left lead
> despite unrelenting left hand pressure and could
> not gallop four days afterward, so Baffert jogged
> him. His jockey decided not to ride him back
> before the win photo was taken.
>
> I do not care what figure TG, Beyer or aunt Jane
> gives Sinister, he's nowhwere in Louisville and
> 50-50 to ever win again. bbb

Bellsend, just for the record, you did post that First Samurai was a monster. I admit that he was my primary number two horse last Saturday, but all along I've made clear to this board that horse was not a Derby horse and now he's gone. Last year, I was adamantly against Bellamy Road when most thought he was the second coming. That said, I did not bet against Bellamy Road on bounce. I considered him mis-scored and vulnerable to both distance and a pace challenge. I made a nuisance of myself, but I'm certainly on the record if anyone cares to double check.

Last year these debates raged pre-Derby. This year it appears that Thorograph has elected to withhold their data on these races until after the event. Thats certainly their prerogative even if it makes this board a little more dull. It will also insulate them from us second guessing their figures, if that was contemplated by them. But if you followed the key horses into those final preps its not hard to estimate how fast they ran in those preps. It might make an interesting contest to project what Tgraph assigned in the preps and declare a winner post Derby for who was closest. Here are my estimates:

Wood winner -1
Bluegrass winner -4
Illinois Derby winner -2
S.A. Derby winner 1
Ark winner -1

If you're saying that Sinister Minister ran too fast and is a no play if he runs in the Derby, its quite likely that Tgraph is going to say the same thing. Ragozin's spokesman is already saying it. Assuming it to be true, I'm not altogether sure not galloping for four days after a tough race like the Bluegrass is out of the ordinary at all. Especially for Baffert. I'm also not sure Garret Gomez is on the right horse, or if it even was his choice. It wouldnt' be the first time a jockey and/or his agent tried to be handicappers.

Bottom line is this: I've taken positions against big figure horses when I think the figure is off, but to this point I will not dispute a mature horse Blue Grass figure for Sinister Minister. He may not repeat it at Churchill Downs, but he may not have to. I'm also not going to dismiss a 12-1 to 15-1 or more horse for being so fast he probably came unglued in his last, especially when its likely a price horse like that is going to pull his conditions. If he runs, I expect a first class effort out of Sinister Minister that literally buries some very highly regarded animals. He may not cross the wire first, but if he runs hes gonna rock their world.