Jerry,

I just reviewed the Bel sheets and reread your post.

Since I know just enough about figure making methodology to be dangerous, let me put it simply that I have no clue as to what you are claiming regarding the five point shift after race 5.

I do agree that there was no apparent change weather or otherwise as I was in the crowd that day and was very cognizant of what the track supers were doing between races.

I am confused by your comparison of one turn routes to sprints. The latter part of the card was 4 turf and 2 dirt....

The Sarava # looks way off to me at first glance. I say that because the official time was extremely pedestrian and led me to believe that he probably ran the 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 and all the pair up and new top entries (i.e WE, SB, PC, Weisner, EOD, WF, ) just plain did not run.

I know you make adustments for ground loss, wind, etc. I would be interested in knowing how a 2:29.2 gets a 0 on a track that may not have been that glib but was hardly "slow" imo???

I admit that I did not focus my binocs on Sarava as I was searching the Throgs Neck Bridge looking for Tabitha's beloved Perfect Dread...lol . So I can't speak volumes about his trip.

I would appreciate if you could elaborate a bit on this split variant thing....

From my experience in figuremaking (I did make some crude figs back in the late 70's--used Kuck's stuff, owned one of those fig calculators, and still purchase a competitors product for pace info- obviously not Rags) During that time, I never used projections (just results versus pars which gave me a variant and then it was simple addition or subtraction)

I have a few more comments but this post is rivaling War and Peace, so I'll cut off right here and let you respond.