alm Wrote:
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> Every owner places his horses where they can win
> the biggest purses they are capable of winning.
> It should be no surprise that many of the most
> successful 3yos race in California, year after
> year. The purses are generally bigger. I look to
> California first for my Derby selections because
> of this and those horses have come through with
> regularity.
>
> Not only do I want my Derby selections to compete
> against the best (starting with California), I
> want a trainer proven capable of beating the
> others, based on experience. Novice trainers need
> not apply for inclusion.
>
> The SA Derby was Dan Hendricks Kentucky Derby. It
> likely meant as much to him as the KY Derby means
> to Bob Baffert, so Brother Derek was probably as
> cranked as Hendricks could get him going into that
> race. Baffert’s horse on the other hand was very
> likely NOT cranked, since his goal is the KY
> Derby.
>
> Baffert’s two other 3 YOs likewise were probably
> not wound up for the SA Derby and, given the
> obvious pace scenario there, he decided to send
> them elsewhere against what he probably considered
> to be inferior packs of 3 YOs.
>
> In winning both of those races, relatively easily,
> he not only proved the quality of the horses
> running in California this year, but he also got
> to tighten the screws on BJ and SM in the process.
> These were very nice paid workouts.
>
> Don’t over think this one. Just look at the
> results in the Bluegrass and the Wood and bet
> against Baffert at your peril. He’s been there.
> He’s proven he knows how to prepare them. He’s
> won it before and will win it again.
>
> This year box a Baffert exacta and key a box of
> his three in tris and supers on top of five other
> choices and you may collect a set of big
> numbers.

Actually the California purses are dropping vs. other circuits and last I checked they were not among the top circuits. Its still not a bad place to run a good horse, but other than Bro Derek they are all Kentucky horses anyway.

Note the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby were the highest purse preps.

Betting Baffert isn't exactly betting Kalifornia. He preps wherever. You could say hes not been especially successful in Kalifornia this year and it has nothing to do with the purse structure and quality of horses hes faced out there. Even Real Quiet and Silver Charm didn't do their best running out West. Its not like the horses beating them there were their betters.