Re: sweetnorthernsaint (569 Views)
Posted by:
alm (IP Logged)
Date: April 29, 2006 01:00PM
Several reactions.
A really quick survey of purses:
Allowance NW 3 at route: SA 62,000, CD 58,000 minus 12,000, Gulf 37,000
Allowance NW 2 at route: SA 58,000, CD 54,000 minus 11,000, Gulf 33,000
MSW: SA 50,000, CD 50,000 minus 12,000, Gulf 32,000
Southern California, for a good horse, is still the top or close to it in purses. (By the way, the minus numbers at Churchill are the added monies that get paid only to KY breds, which makes the purses much lower there.)
My point isn't about where the horse is born, but where an owner will race a good horse. He has a better shot at good purses all through the early part of a career in Southern Cal.
It doesn't matter that the FLA Derby or other races have purses the same size as Cal races. Those are single incidents. If I can't win the SA Derby, I can still take down more at the races leading up to it if my horse wins.
Also, and this is a big also, you don't have to do a lot of shipping between the 2YO and 3YO prep races down there, whereas you have to constantly ship horses back east due to weather and the brevity of meets. Your good 2YO has a better chance of developing without having to change environments as often.
My thinking on Baffert is really simple, probably too simple to lead to success in betting the Derby this year. He has a national perspective...how else did he end up with Silver Charm and others without it? He knew his two shippers had a better chance to win money and maybe races while only prepping them at Keeneland and Aqueduct because the competition there set up easier than it would in Santa Anita.
Thus, he has three improving horses going to Churchill who have each made their owners important money in the easiest races Baffert could find that fit their KY Derby preparation schedules.
Trying to parse the differences between results at Hawthorne or Gulfstream or wherever may work out, but a lot of these horses look pretty much alike other than their trainers and what I believe their trainers intentions are or were.
Novice Derby trail trainers squeeze the lemon to win the preps because that money means a great deal to them. Guys like Baffert know where the real payoff is and only try to win preps when they have a tremendous edge.
I may not hit my bet, but I still think this is a year he can put a couple of them in the photo.