First of all, whatever trouble BD had going wide on the first turn could have been avoided if Solis had used his horse after he broke from the gate like a quarter horse (look at the aerial view for confirmation) instead of deciding to take back. But even if he had done this, I don't believe it would have made any difference in the outcome.

Watching 4 and 5 horse stakes races in California does one thing for you...it makes you very leary of betting any favorite who has had it all their own way whether on the lead or circling the field (usually 3-wide at most) to accumulate their wins.

Gary Stevens talks about Point Given being hopelessly wide all the way in his Derby, and no matter how great he may have been in California, going wide for the entire Derby is like being on another planet. He ran in small fields that he overwhelmed with his size and ability, not a great training ground for what he was to face.

When Officer went to Belmont for the Juvenile BC and ran against Johannesburg, I kept picturing the race tapes of Johannesburg barrelling out of a pack of 15 or more horses while going uphill at the finish. Could Officer compete against this? I think not!

Finally, look at the size of the fields that Barbaro faced - including the incredible feat of winning the Florida Derby from the 10 hole going 1 1/8 at Gulfstream - and compare that to BD's record. In fact, the largest field BD faced was a race he lost.

Twenty years ago, I used to say the same things about the eastern handicap horses who came west to run in our stampedes. Either way, in handicapping the race, I will always take a horse likely to run back to his "1" earned in a large field over another who posted his "1" in a small field - particularly in California.

And this from a native Californian no less!

Delmar Deb