Delmar Deb Wrote:
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> First of all, whatever trouble BD had going wide
> on the first turn could have been avoided if Solis
> had used his horse after he broke from the gate
> like a quarter horse (look at the aerial view for
> confirmation) instead of deciding to take back.
> But even if he had done this, I don't believe it
> would have made any difference in the outcome.

For Brother Derek to finish 4th with the trip he had, I would say that was still impressive whether or not Solis gave him a questionable ride. You're entitled to your opinion, but you have no way of knowing whether a more competent ride would have made no difference.
>
> Watching 4 and 5 horse stakes races in California
> does one thing for you...it makes you very leary
> of betting any favorite who has had it all their
> own way whether on the lead or circling the field
> (usually 3-wide at most) to accumulate their wins.

Real Quiet ran against short fields in his preps, it didn't keep him from coming within a nose of a Triple Crown.


> Gary Stevens talks about Point Given being
> hopelessly wide all the way in his Derby, and no
> matter how great he may have been in California,
> going wide for the entire Derby is like being on
> another planet. He ran in small fields that he
> overwhelmed with his size and ability, not a great
> training ground for what he was to face.

Then how do you explain Point Given winning 2/3 of the Triple Crown??


>
> When Officer went to Belmont for the Juvenile BC
> and ran against Johannesburg, I kept picturing the
> race tapes of Johannesburg barrelling out of a
> pack of 15 or more horses while going uphill at
> the finish. Could Officer compete against this?
> I think not!

That had nothing to do with Officer running poorly. He was strictly a bet against that day whether or not Johannesburg was in the race or not.
>
> Finally, look at the size of the fields that
> Barbaro faced - including the incredible feat of
> winning the Florida Derby from the 10 hole going 1
> 1/8 at Gulfstream - and compare that to BD's
> record. In fact, the largest field BD faced was a
> race he lost.

The largest field you are referring to was when he was a 2YO. I would think he is a completely different horse now. Lots of good horses have run poorly in a Breeders Cup Juvenile.
>
> Twenty years ago, I used to say the same things
> about the eastern handicap horses who came west to
> run in our stampedes. Either way, in handicapping
> the race, I will always take a horse likely to run
> back to his "1" earned in a large field over
> another who posted his "1" in a small field -
> particularly in California.

How then do you explain Broad Brush winning the Big Cap around 20 yrs or so ago??
>

We can hypothesize all day about why something may have happened. Barbaro got a great trip and was a most deserving winner. That shouldn't take away anything from Brother Derek or minimize his talents. One race doesn't make a career, lets see what happens throughout the year before we dismiss BD as a horse who benefitted from short fields.

P-Dub