Jerry,

Your methodology of just throwing out the worst case of last three (ie using best two of last three in effect) is flawed greatly statistically way too general. That would say any data prior to last three races is meaningless and worthless. You really should use Std Dev of last 10 then 5 then last 3 to see trend of horse development. This takes out any bias/anomoly that may contaminate last 3 race data (only).

Anyone using data knows that a sample of best 2 of last three only is useless, especially if the distnces and surfaces change. Take BGC as an example, you had to trust that you had to ignore the last race. Most Handicappers don't or can't. I know a few good handicappers who did and cashed big.

Using Std Dev you can find the range that any horse can figure or project to run in High or low (best case or worst case) Worked great for me in Oct Stakes including BC races. requires that the TG data be accurate accross all tracks and sufaces. I had issues at the time with your Cali figs.

Thats all I am willing to say at this point.

NC Tony



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/11/2006 08:23AM by NoCarolinaTony.