Re: THORO VS SHEETS? AN ACID TEST (535 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: May 11, 2006 02:55PM
Miff-- that's the problem, all right. By the way, you should try this some time-- go through a card, and look at the last 5 races on every horse, and see what the percentage was of pairs (5th back to 4th back, 4th back to 3rd back, etc.). I think you will find it is much smaller than you think, all other issues aside.
Tony-- like I said, I'm sure statistical guys have better ideas for testing than I do-- I would hope so, since they teach college courses in statistics.
But I do think the study I described would have some relevance (and yes, we would not count races run on other surfaces, and make other adjustments). But in general, recent races are more important than those further back, and the other factors should wash out equally for both sides in the long run.
Bottom line, if a reasonably accurate study can be done I would love to see it. We would kill Ragozin, and I'm convinced that Beyer would beat them, even without ground and weight. Miff is right about the differences getting bigger, and it's not because I've changed anything.