NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc,
>
> What I don't get, and maybe someone can explain
> this to me. I keep hearing that Barbaro is the
> "Bounce Candidate" off of his new lifetime top,
> and he's never raced off of a two week layoff.
> It's been said - he had a rather easy trip vis a
> vis BD or SNS. Brother Derek or SNS have never
> raced on two weeks rest either. And we all agree
> BD had a very troubled and difficult trip to get
> back to his previous top? Those facts make him a
> move up candidate? And if you believe SNS bounced
> in last off of the prior effort, now off two weeks
> rest is he a move up candidate now or is more
> regression expected? I've seen horses rebound, but
> his trip looked brutal and he was clearly
> struggling coming home.
>
> I think a horse like Like Now showed lots of heart
> in last at Kee but question if he can handle the
> extra 1/16th. He's fresher and the better exacta
> option .
>
> NC Tony

I actually forgot Like Now was in the race. That alters the Bro Derek front end scenario.

Theres a couple reasons to believe Barbaro may not run as well. First off, he ran on the ideal part of the track. Horses that were down inside for whatever reason did not run their race or faded late. I'm not 100% confident in that. I'm still reviewing it, but the Dead Rail the day before appears more settled. To my mind dead rails cannot always be dismissed in days subsequent to them making their presence known. But Barbaro's effort even path aided was big. He was coming in on Five weeks rest. They clearly want to give him time. This time, he doesn't get to chose his timing. He has to run. I count that as a negative with this horse.

He also was the beneficiary of what was a blistering pace and he got first run on the tiring leaders. It could happen again if Bro Derek and Like Now hook up. But I don't foresee the horror trips again for SNS and Bro Derek. SNS was extremely unlucky last. Is he good enough? I think he is, but I'm even more convinced now the Illinois Derby was a faster race than everyone thinks and I agree he may be off form from it now.

We've mentioned the good horses. Theres Bernardini coming in as well and in all candor I don't have a handle on him yet. My view is that Barbaro is not 6-7 lengths better than these and I will ask him to do it again. That said, When Point Given ran out of the Derby Exacta for me I tried to beat him in every subsequent race he beat me every time trying to do it.

Barbaro clearly isn't 6 lengths superior. I'm not sure yet he's not another Point Given though and he was on form in his last.