NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> All you Brother Derek lovers out there, please
> don't make excuses after this race too. I think BD
> is ready to go Boing. He did have a very very
> tough race last time out, and through his class
> gutted out a 4th place finish. Bravo to BD.
> However he's over extended and he too is now
> coming off of a two week break for the first time
> after going a mile 3/8's in his last race also for
> the firstime in his life. I don't get all of the
> racing excuse logic being used to support BD while
> at the same time use the same logic to say barbaro
> is going to bounce.
>
> Richiebee the "Logical Song" by Supertramp come to
> mind.
>
> NC Tony

NC T... Why did BD have a "very very tough" race in the Derby? He essentially ran the same as he has the entire year, about a 0. Are you trying to infer that a particular TG figure while being run wide is more taxing than the same number on the rail? Otherwise, I don't understand.

The issue isn't two weeks in general... the issue is that Barbaro has purposely had very spaced out races and had one race in three months leading into the Derby. This is a radical difference. He's going to run more in two weeks than he ran in three months. That is clearly much different than BD's campaign, where he has shown that monthly efforts around the 0 range don't hurt him. Barbaro now has a 4 1/2 point top into virgin territory with a major change in rest. If you want to bet that at 4-5 be my guest. Also, BD ran about 95 feet farther than he would have on the rail... or less than 1/16 of a mile... not an extra 1/8 of a mile.

Obviously, I don't have the numbers of the non-Derby horses yet, but off of general knowledge from their careers, I'd say it's pretty close to 95% against that any of them can win. So, I gotta figure that I would need someone marginally capable to be at least 15 or 20-1 to make it worthwhile.