1) shoes. Brother Derek didn't have bend shoes,barbaro did. Be interesting to see if BD gets a shoe change, since he supposedly lost one in the Derby.

2) Obligation. The Derby winner is obliated to run no matter what. He could be sick, lame or worse and he's running. This and the Belmont are the only two times where an 'off' horse will most likely run. Not saying Barbaro is 'off' but if he is, there will be no late scratch or early scratch, which has to be factored into your 3-5 price.

3) back in 2 weeks. Barbaro's career is spaced perfectly, now it isn't. If this race was run 5 weeks from now, He'd be 3-5. this race is run tomorrow, he's 3-5. you get no extra value because you are taking a horse back in 2 weeks, thats not factored into the price because he'd be 3-5 no matter when this preakness took place.

4) If Barbaro wins he's in great shape jockeywise for the Belmont. Correct me if i'm wrong, but all the near TC misses in recent times were horses ridden by non-belmont riders. Desormeaux...moved too soon....Elliot....moved too soon....Stevens...moved too soon...Espinosa...would probably have moved too soon if he didn't break slow. Now, you have Prado...an experienced Belmont Park rider. Thats a huge edge many might not factor in if and when Barbaro goes for the TC.

5) Pre-derby training. Barbaro was galloping and working amazing, we could all see this with our own eyes on the Tvg's works show. BD had that funky workout at SA in April and SNS was galloping 'rough' in one or 2 of his morning gallops. Now, you know, things can change. With everything going for Barbaro tripwise in the Derby, he was physically the best feeling horse before the race too.

6) resistance. Barbaro was able to cruise by 2 stoppers on the far turn. What happens when he makes his cruising move and the leader grits his teeth and says, "no you dont' Will Barbaro be as effective? Will he be able to 'fight' with another horse and still keep digging and hold off the closers?

7) big outside speed. posts 7, 8 and 9 are going to be moving out of there. Is barbaro going to let them go and get shuffled back? Is he going to rush up to hold those outside speed horses wide? Tough spot postwise considering the outside horses are going to be pressing hard into the first turn for position.

8) Like Now's gotham. Watch the head on....Like Now is drifting badly at the wire. Thats alarming for me. He's a jackrabbit for the first few strides, he'll most likely have to set the pace under amazing pressure. Can't see him being around at the finish. Do we think the drift in the gotham is cause for concern?

9) Sacred light. SL only lost to BD by 1 3/4 lengths in the Santa Catalina. I have to imagine Bernardini is a much more talented horse than SL. Transpose Bernardini in the body of SL in that race..does he run by BD? Visually this is a spectacular specimen...who will be underbet because people usually handicap with the 'what have you done' attitude instead of 'what can you do' attitude.

10)Magic Weisner. If MW runs by War Emblem and pays 120 bucks to win, handicappers would be forever searching for the longshot winner of the Preakness. Now, because the favorite seems to ALWAYS win, we will have people just saying, "the derby winner usually wins the preakness" Hence, value for the longshots. One of these years its going to be total boxcars at the Preakness. I just hope i'm not broke when it happens.