Re: things to ponder re preakness (755 Views)
Posted by:
NoCarolinaTony (IP Logged)
Date: May 20, 2006 07:03AM
imallin Wrote:
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> 1) shoes. Brother Derek didn't have bend
> shoes,barbaro did. Be interesting to see if BD
> gets a shoe change, since he supposedly lost one
> in the Derby.
Great idea
>
> 2) Obligation. The Derby winner is obliated to run
> no matter what. He could be sick, lame or worse
> and he's running. This and the Belmont are the
> only two times where an 'off' horse will most
> likely run. Not saying Barbaro is 'off' but if he
> is, there will be no late scratch or early
> scratch, which has to be factored into your 3-5
> price.
It's happened before (ie See Woodford Stephens)
>
> 3) back in 2 weeks. Barbaro's career is spaced
> perfectly, now it isn't. If this race was run 5
> weeks from now, He'd be 3-5. this race is run
> tomorrow, he's 3-5. you get no extra value because
> you are taking a horse back in 2 weeks, thats not
> factored into the price because he'd be 3-5 no
> matter when this preakness took place.
>
So Has Bother dereks Campaign and So Has SNS. Everyone needs to get off this idea.
> 4) If Barbaro wins he's in great shape jockeywise
> for the Belmont. Correct me if i'm wrong, but all
> the near TC misses in recent times were horses
> ridden by non-belmont riders. Desormeaux...moved
> too soon....Elliot....moved too
> soon....Stevens...moved too
> soon...Espinosa...would probably have moved too
> soon if he didn't break slow. Now, you have
> Prado...an experienced Belmont Park rider. Thats a
> huge edge many might not factor in if and when
> Barbaro goes for the TC.
>
Brilliant!!
> 5) Pre-derby training. Barbaro was galloping and
> working amazing, we could all see this with our
> own eyes on the Tvg's works show. BD had that
> funky workout at SA in April and SNS was galloping
> 'rough' in one or 2 of his morning gallops. Now,
> you know, things can change. With everything going
> for Barbaro tripwise in the Derby, he was
> physically the best feeling horse before the race
> too.
>
Matz is playing games with the press (ie See Woodford Stepehens)
> 6) resistance. Barbaro was able to cruise by 2
> stoppers on the far turn. What happens when he
> makes his cruising move and the leader grits his
> teeth and says, "no you dont' Will Barbaro be as
> effective? Will he be able to 'fight' with another
> horse and still keep digging and hold off the
> closers?
Thought Barbaro Gritted his teeth well with Sharp Humor in Florida
>
> 7) big outside speed. posts 7, 8 and 9 are going
> to be moving out of there. Is barbaro going to let
> them go and get shuffled back? Is he going to rush
> up to hold those outside speed horses wide? Tough
> spot postwise considering the outside horses are
> going to be pressing hard into the first turn for
> position.
>
We also thought there was Big Outside Speed in the Derby too Didn't matter.
> 8) Like Now's gotham. Watch the head on....Like
> Now is drifting badly at the wire. Thats alarming
> for me. He's a jackrabbit for the first few
> strides, he'll most likely have to set the pace
> under amazing pressure. Can't see him being around
> at the finish. Do we think the drift in the gotham
> is cause for concern?
>
Like now is not a mile and 3/16 Horse. He fades after Mile and 1/8.
> 9) Sacred light. SL only lost to BD by 1 3/4
> lengths in the Santa Catalina. I have to imagine
> Bernardini is a much more talented horse than SL.
> Transpose Bernardini in the body of SL in that
> race..does he run by BD? Visually this is a
> spectacular specimen...who will be underbet
> because people usually handicap with the 'what
> have you done' attitude instead of 'what can you
> do' attitude.
>
Bernadini is probably the best bred animal in the race in the hand of the Makthoums (Darley) Would not be a Surprise to me. I see this one over BD. Just a little light in racing foundation (one turn mile).
> 10)Magic Weisner. If MW runs by War Emblem and
> pays 120 bucks to win, handicappers would be
> forever searching for the longshot winner of the
> Preakness. Now, because the favorite seems to
> ALWAYS win, we will have people just saying, "the
> derby winner usually wins the preakness" Hence,
> value for the longshots. One of these years its
> going to be total boxcars at the Preakness. I just
> hope i'm not broke when it happens.
You are right but even if Benadini or Like Now or Greeleys Legacy wins you won't get the enormous value. Not this year Save your money!!! You would need Hemingways Zito or Diabolical to pull that one off.
NC Tony