Seems a very well weighted handicap. 'Fog had a tough sophomore campaign and was brilliant thruout. Certainly not cranked against Carthage who would be second choice in here. The Breeders Cup is here (Churchill) and this appears an easy spot to me. I think he wins at 4-5.

For value, you might take a look at his stablemate Victorina in the previous heat. She is very solid and comes off the best work of her career, outworking Fog by lengths. It is disconserting that Joint Effort wins a Grade 3 Derby day and gets 6 pounds off for this.

For more value, a pick three through both Gilchrist runners gets you to a wide open handicap and if they race on the hedge today, five of those are eliminated immediately. Good luck. BBB