Re: Fresh Horses (560 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: June 05, 2006 09:04PM
richiebee Wrote:
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> Mr. Clownspector:
>
> For the record (and check the record) I
> thought LITF was an undeserving Eclipse Award
> winning sprinter last year. That being said, I am
> still very impressed with his consistency (he's
> fired in every one of his races) and he has now
> won 11 races at 9 different tracks. In the old
> days he would eventually have to carry the track
> on his back, but racing has gotten away from
> handicaps it seems.
>
> Your contention that short priced champion
> caliber horses are the bettor's enemy is slightly
> anachronistic. I would agree with you 100% in
> olden days when the wagering menu was limited to
> straight WPS, double and exacta wagering. With the
> advent of multiple race wagers, there is a way to
> deploy these "locks" who seemingly have a 40- 50%
> chance of winning. The all stakes P4 at CD (second
> fave, co fave, LITF, and $30 winner of the last
> race) paid over $900
Always respect your opinion Richie and the fact that you believe he was undeserving resonates with me. He clearly did nothing to put him in the league with the better sprinters: Ta Wee, Dr. Fager, Rubiano, Housebuster, just to name a few.
He does run consistent, but he is consistently placed in spots not to test him with the best. However, he does move up occasionally and when he does thats the time. Gilcrist knows hes one dimensional. Remember his talk last year about stretching this horse out? That talk has completely evaporated. Now we have a four race campaign with a hoped for successful completion in the Breeders Cup.
As far as multiple race winner gimmicks, you have to be very careful with them. To my way of thinking its much easier to nail the exotics in a single race if you can come up with a winner. Sometimes, you can narrow the winner to two or dismiss an odds on horse. That said stringing multiple races winners can sure be lucrative, but some abhore the all button.
One last thing. I never said you can't make money with short priced horses. The point being made was knowing when to take that short priced horse and completely dismiss him. This horse is not great. He's part faker. Lets bide our time to the right race, just like last year.
As