Haven't seen Bernardini's TFigs yet and I'll post here and then look. That chronology may inure to the benefit of discussing his pending effort. O.k. here goes, heading to the ROTW, which is kinda like Christmas ain't it?

Three minutes later:

Ok, its about what I figured it would be. Now, why on shorter rest going longer distance shouldn't there be a regression here? He's a good horse. He may win, but why shouldn't he regress to a negative 1 or thereabouts? Maybe he can and win though. Will look more closely now.

20 minutes later a little more.

He's an old salt just looks a little slow to me. You're talking career top at a novel distance merely to compete.

Ministers Bid. Personally, I believe this is Wards best horse. As an immature horse running rank in his previous race he chased a lose on the lead Bernardini through the Saratoga Slop. Thats not a good recipe for overtaking a decent horse. To his credit he did finish again at the end. Have the distinct impression this horse is still learning and that last race was part of the experience. Clearly a horse with some ability and not gonna hold it against him at this early stage that he got out slop footed. Expect a substantially better effort Saturday.

Dr. Pleasure don't think the slop helped this horse either, but still think he's not as much horse as Ministers Bid.

High Cotton - Pletcher is here isn't he? When Deputy Glitters was right he beat the other Pletcher stable star. Pletcher must think this horse and his barn have a chance against Bernardini. Ya think?

Bernardini - Crown him prior to the race or crown him afterwards? He should be odds on. Anyone think he'll be even money or higher? Not enamored with the Jim Dandy slop romp primarly because it was slop. Has been a big margin winner in the past, but have to take note of that erratic stretch run in the Preakness. First question one has to ask oneself is will he see the same early race development he saw in the Jim Dandy?, i.e. loose on the lead slop. Second question would have to be did the Jim Dandy tax him? Did he run through the race?

Kip Deville - This is the early race leader. The question is how far can he carry it. This horse is very very quick.

Blue Grass Cat - Finished 2nd in the worst Belmont I've ever handicapped. Refused to even bet it. Followed that up with a big score in the weakest field Haskell I've ever seen. If Bernardini can't come through does the race fall by default to this one? Don't count on it. He was about even with Deputy Glitters on that one's A cycle too. Lastly see that Haskell Negative 1, but am not sold it was in that range.






curly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HesAnOldSalt - Paired up his top and has
> developed finally from those 4s as a 2yo. Last
> time he paired top efforts it took several races
> to get back into top form. Il expect a slight
> regression off the pair and toss going the 1 and
> 1/4.
>
> Minister's Bid - Dont really like horses running
> too fast too early but has run big numbers. That
> last 3 was in the slop so as long as its fast out
> there tommorow id say he comes back to a 0-2
> effort. Must use underneath.
>
> Dr Pleasure - Kinda like this one. After those
> 77days off he came back to his 2yo top which was
> good. And then paired again running in the slop.
> To me his best chance to move forward was last
> time out but has never run the slop before so i'll
> give em another try to bust through a new top
> (hopefully several points)on a fast track.
>
> High Cotton - Has 7 weeks off the top effort and
> at best i say he pairs. Has a good chance to go
> back though several points. Kinda ify on him so i
> would use him lightly below.
>
> Bernardini - Horse is a monster and hasn't shown
> anything wrong yet. Raced big in the slop last out
> and has 28 days off and races 2nd time off the
> short layoff. Trainer profile doesnt show a good
> percentage of horses that pair 2nd off the layoff
> so...I think he can race another top lets say neg
> 3.25?
>
> Kip Deville - I think I could throw Marcus on my
> back and we can run this race and beat this
> animal. haha way too slow to be in here.
>
> Bluegrass Cat - Has been bery consistent but is
> coming off two top efforts. Only has 20 days off
> now and i would def say he will regress a couple
> points. Looks like a good race for the owners
> though cause this is a short field with a a few
> slow horses..the horse should be able to get about
> 3rd place or so and with the million dollar purse
> thats still a nice payday....for them. Il use
> lightly just like high cotton.
>
>
> Break down - This race kinda reminds me of the
> pacific classic.. looks like we can key the
> fastest horse Bernardini and still get nice prices
> for the ex/tri and supers. Il key Bernardini and
> play dr plesure and ministers bid for second in
> the exacta.. then part key the tri and super with
> those two in second then for third and forth
> (super) those two along with bg cat and high
> cotton. Good luck !!
>
>
>






Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 08/25/2006 08:56PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.