Below it the "break even" odds line for the ROTW developed by a sheets-based computer model that uses TG figures as the primary input.

According to the model, the likely favorite is vulnerable. If you factor in weight and likely ground loss he is less than 2 points faster than Yankee Gentleman and the latter has a much stronger pattern and has a good chance of improving while Gygistar has a good chance of regressing. If you run the numbers on all the likely scenarios Yankee Gentleman comes up a little more likely to win. American Style is the other horse that is fast enough to have a shot. Of course, the most likely winner is not necessarily the best bet. The post-time odds will determine that.

I have also provided the "break even" $2 exacta payoffs for some of the relevant combinations.

Good luck to all.

Chris

Odds Line:

1, Yankee Gentleman, 1.9
2, American Style, 4.6
3, Nothing Flat , 16.5
4, My Man Ryan , 9.3
5, Heir D' Twine, 27.1
6, Gygistar, 2.5

Exacta Payoffs:

1-2, $22
1-3, $47
1-4, $33
1-5, $71
1-6, $17

2-1, $34
3-1, $127
4-1, $69
5-1, $223
6-1, $18