Re: Wednesday at Polywood (559 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: November 14, 2006 04:34AM
Well you know how it is Marcus, I feel kind of like Tommy Lasorda in those World
Series commercials, trying to get people who think the season is over to get
interested in baseball after their teams have been eliminated. (My favorite one
of these was when Lasorda told some young Red Sox fans "C'mon kids, you know
what you gotta do. Now go out there and root against the Yankees...")
I think its natural for there to be a letdown after the Breeders Cup, and I know
lots of TG users/posters are recharging their batteries waiting for the opening
of the winter venues. Its kind of exciting for me just to see that horses are
working out at the Fair Grounds after the dark year caused by Katrina.
With regards to New Orleans, my feeling is that in 15 years this City will
either be the greatest urban renewal/ reclamation story ever told or a ghost
town. Having lived there for the better part of 2 years, I am hoping for the
former, but also agree with those taking the pessimistic view, given the City's
long traditions of crime, poverty and political corruption.
All of your points about bankroll and the pick 6 are valid, but now and then on
Wednesdays I get together with a friend and we pool our resources in the P6.
As for Polywood, Ferndale Sal (leg 2) could set off long debates among
performance figurers. FS hung up a new top-- and a number faster than any other
animal in this race has run-- 6 days ago. DRF's trainer stats reveal that
trainer Abrams is 2 for 39 bringing horses back 7 days or under. TG's trainer
profile measures Abrams' success for horses brought back in under 11 days;
the sample is larger and the picture is a bit more encouraging.
Adding to Sal's number appeal is the fact that the horse in the race who is
arguably second fastest is a non winner of 2 lifetime and has never won on the
turf.
Fastest yes, but before taking a strong position I would want to see if the
Polywood condition book is available online. If Polywood writes state bred N2X
races on the turf, and one is coming up, I would take that as a negative (Sal's
last win was in a state bred N1X on the turf). IMO, the fewer opportunities that
were available to Sal, the more positive I would be about his chances Wednesday;
possibly the quick re-entry is a function of there being very few spots
available for this horse in the near future.
Paralysis by over-analysis? Count on it!
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