Aside from the occasional War Emblems & Charismatics, the value plays in the derby are often coming off sub-par efforts so forgiving a regression on the carpet for a fat price is business as usual. Consider BG Cat, Closing Argument, Invisible Ink all cracking the Derby exacta recently at big odds off losing efforts in the Bluegrass specifically, and going back the nineties, there were champs Thunder Gulch & Sea Hero overlooked after losing at Keeneland. That was all on the quirky dirt, but don't see any reason why angle shouldn't apply to a prep on synthetic as well.

What I will view differently this year is if there is the huge effort in the BG; the last two years it seemed to knock them out. At this point I'm under the impression that the poly is much more forgiving, so if there is a big # run I'm giving it a long look.