Richie I caught your question late and don't have the time to make a thorough response, but I am not Johnny Come Lately to Hard Spun. I liked him for some time now and cashed my first Poly wager in over a year upon him. I'm not against a Danzig with a stout Broodmare Sire and Hard Spun fits that bill.

That said, I'm not aware of any Lanes End, Bluegrass doubles. You're a better historian than I. Have there been some? More importantly, has there been a Lanes End, Blugrass entry...Derby winner scenario? I really dont' know. I'm a chaos handicapper though, if there never has been, all the more reason for one to come along. That said, I'm not altogether sure the Bluegrass is going to be Hard Spuns best race. Its likely a little Bluegrass regression would fit the Derby bill to a T.

Regarding the vanquished Larry the Roman, he was undefeated until that race. I also think Cowtown Cat ran much faster than a 88 in the Gotham. Maybe you know the Tfig for the Gotham. I don't. As of this writing, I think Summer Doldrums is going to be extremely competitive in the Wood with the field as currently projected. Circular Quay and Nobiz shouldn't scare off an opinion.

Lastly, I'm a big believer in Pletcher horses peaking early and holding rather than steadily progressing. That was TGraphs contention a couple short years ago and the only horse I can recall on the trail that seemed to break that trend was Bandini. That said I discounted Bandini's Bluegrass on Path bias. Still bet him in that Derby, but really felt the Bluegrass was not that much better than most of his previous races. Long story short, Pletcher gets caught up to in the big events by real horseman planning for them. The juice gets a horse running, but it can't take him beyond certain limits. To get to those performance levels you need a better horse.

and lastly, lastly, addressing your point, regardless of the eventual demise of polytrack, a good horse is a good horse no matter what nonsense he runs on.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,33155,33209#msg-33209

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,32898,32957#msg-32957



richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC ... compose if you could a short list of
> horses who have had success in the
> Ky Derby by Yums Brands (Gr I) after competing in
> BOTH Lanes End AND Bluegrass.
> And yes I realize that this is the first year both
> preps will be synthetic.
>
> And then the question is, if you took Shanahan's
> offer to jump on the bandwagon,
> is it accurate to say that you would expect HS to
> be less than wound all the
> way tight for the BG? Will the BG be a
> conditioning run for a colt who might be
> considered distance challenged on the sire side?
>
> If Hard Spun runs a huge Derby off 2 synthetic
> prep races, will we be hearing
> a faint bell signaling the end of American dirt
> racing, where the only tracks
> which are running on dirt are the tracks which
> can't afford Poly? I think its a
> great thing that the problems racing has had
> recently, partially created by
> chemists masquerading as horse trainers and
> partially created by an expanded and
> diluted gene pool, will all be solved by the magic
> carpet.
>
> Every time I hear of the Whirlaway and its winner,
> Summer Doldrums, I reflect
> on the big 1/2 favorite in that race, who ran
> fourth. That favorite has since
> been retired to stud after knee problems. The
> owner is so convinced that his
> new stallion will be well received, he has offered
> to pay owners of worthy
> mares who are willing to breed their mares to this
> new stud.
>
> My take: Summer Doh-ldrums beat a weak field in
> the Whirly. He got beaten by
> TAPs 9th or 10th string in the Gotham. The Wood
> looks like it will have a short
> field featuring Nobiz and Circular Quay, who got
> an absolutely flawless trip and
> ride in the La Derby. Racing on the Inner Course
> was weak all the way through
> this winter, and SD has plenty left to show me to
> convince me he is a legit
> graded runner, not to mention a Derby prospect.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/26/2007 12:16AM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.