bob,

I agree that a poly prep for Hard Spun would be fine at this point. To a lessor extent Street Sense would be fine also because it wouldn't be much of an experiment at this point. Their dirt and poly form are both established and good enough to go on either way. That's one of the exceptions I identified.

I also agree that most Derby winners haven't fired their best shot until the "big day". That's the goal. But typically they have a nice developing pattern that makes it clear where they fit by the time the final prep is in (other than the occasional dud race on the former odd Keeneland surface or something like that). IMO anything that complicates the analysis of where your horse is and how he is doing before the "big dance" is a bad thing because it increases the probability of a poor decision being made. Personally, I think it would be crazy for most top horses to go that route until more is known. I would fire my trainer if he suggested an experiment like that with a legit contender in it's final prep. (Obviously I am talking about legit horses here and not the bozos that get entered every year because the connections want to say they had a horse in the Derby)