Barbaro & Giacomo both ran 4 point tops in the derby so it might be time to consider giving less weight to the trend.

That being said... AGS's big fig wide run heartbreaker in the TBD is the most impressive dirt prep so far (don't have Currin's Rebel fig yet & assuming Wood & SAD were slow) and AGS's Wood loss to the slower Nobiz ensures some value now in Ky.

Street Sense still tops with huge fig earned last year but remains biggest X factor:
- possible biased BC fig due to golden rail... jury's still out
- Poly Blue Grass prep will not give true indication of current dirt form
- Outrun figwise by AGS in only dirt start this year
- Carl maybe sitting on a gorilla and craftily pointing to big race a la Unbridled
- possibly way overbet on derby day after big BC juve win in Ky a la Arazi


I suggest that those looking for a firm grip on the derby picture this year will either be left frustrated in the weeks to come or else will resort to believing assumptions based on shaky old trends that have been having more and more exceptions in the past decade.

I'll live with the muddy picture as I find it difficult to seriously knock the top 7 or so. Only option now is making an odds line as soon as all figs are in & then adjusting when starting posts are selected... then map out plays once tote action is clear.