The final time of the Florida Derby doesn't look bad at all, however if you extrapolate the finishes it doesn't look very good. The Florida Derby horses have been a little slow to compete or their recent fast raw times indicate that they all improved enough across the board to be factors. I'm leaning towards the former.

4YO^ Skip Away
10th Race-A.P. Arrow Winner
23.33, 46.86, 1.10.68, 1.36.36, 1.49.70

3YO Florida Derby
11th Race-Scat Daddy Winner
23.05, 46.78, 1.10.82, 1.35.92, 1.49.00

Scat Daddy 1.49 Previous Top-2
Notional 1.49.25 Previous Top-3 (non factoring maiden zed)
Chelokee 1.49.40 Previous Top-3.5
Stormello 1.49.80 (on a fade) Previous Top-4

Unless the Florida Derby 3YO's all improved at the same time to surpss the effort of A.P. Arrow, (which may be within the realm of possibilities) The track got a bit hot for that last dirt race. In other words, either A.P Arrow didn't get near his Zeds or the Track went berzerker fast for the Florida Derby. (Yes Jerry at this juncture I'm using your goods)

I wouldn't expect the Florida Derby horses to be much of a factor in the Big one. I believe Chelokee is a pass on the race. That said if the 1 or 2 finishers can have a good Derby they could help it pay.

Pletcher is talking big on Scat Daddy after the race, but he is all talk all the time and if you can really figure out who his top horse is you have a better crystal ball than he does. To my mind, where Velasquez ends up will be decisive and I think He'll be on Any Given Saturday.

CtC


ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If memory serves, I remember reading the chances
> of running a new top in the derby or slim although
> it has happen recently. I believe only a handful
> have run fast enough so far. Street Sense,Any
> Given Sunday, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Hard
> Spun...Am I missing any?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/08/2007 04:29PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.