Re: Street Sense BC Question? (487 Views)
Posted by:
MO (IP Logged)
Date: April 20, 2007 11:32AM
I was also at CD on BC day. The rail was good, but it was also the shortest path to the wire. So I would factor that into my handicappping. I wouldn't call it a bias.
That said, I still take a rather old fashioned approach to handicapping this race. It happens only once a year, and should be treated as such.
The dual qualifier rule is where I start. SS is the highweight. I start by looking for ways to beat him. I only look at the dual qualifiers. The rest I throw out. It hasn't cost me that much. In fact, after betting the Derby since 1986, I show a huge flat bet profit on my selections. And some of my beats ran a second (49er, Easy Goer, Tejano Run-the buzzer victim).
There are some patterns other than speed figures that I use as part of my criteria for a Derby winner: must "win" a major 2 yo race. Must "win" a major 3 yo prep race. Must be on the board in his last prep.
There are also some other handicapping rules I apply: never bet the horses in the aux gate. No horse has won since the 1800s witout a 2yo race. No BC JUV winner has ever won the Derby.
Then I look at the TG figs and patterns.
Another given is that some rules are bound to be broken, some sooner than later.
Strike the Gold, Thunder Gulch, Sunday Silence come to mind. I think Street Sense will join them this year and become the first BC JUV winner to win the Derby. There's so much to like here, beginning with the trainer. Same pattern: Keenland poly race to CD dirt top. Has a win over the track. Will be a square price. Looking forward to the TG sheets.