Re: 1st Attempt at a Derby Odds Line (543 Views)
Posted by:
imallin (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2007 05:13PM
Few things to consider if you want to adjust your line.
1) people tend to bet 2 dollars to win on every longshot....so, those 50-1 shots may be 38-1 or thereabouts. I'd lower the extreme bombs just a little bit and raise the shorter prices a litlle bit.
2)Dominican may be lower due to the presense of Rafael Bejarano, a KY based rider. I remember being fascinated when Pat Day was always overbet in the Derby and i thought to myself that because of the worldwide betting pools, there would be no pat day bias, but there was. Maybe a little love for the locals.
3) Julien Leparoux. Not sure if he has a mount, but if he gets one, he'll be overbet (just a little bit) too.
4) Tiago. He'll get lots of press being Giacomo's brother...so, he could be a tick or 2 under your 25-1 quoted price.
Overall i think you did a very good job. Post positions will change things, but i don't see anything out of whack.
Well done.
