Re: Who was better: WE or Md'O? (983 Views)
Posted by:
Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: August 06, 2002 12:04AM
HP,
I guess it's all just a matter of personal opinion. Some handicappers put a lot of emphasis on sheet patterns, others look very closely at breeding, and some concentrate on the jockeys and trainers. I guess there is no way to quantify which factor is most important, but I definitely put more emphasis on the jockeys than most handicappers. I think Bailey and Velazquez have a unique quality that enables their mounts to reach their optimal cruising speed.
Obviously since Bailey has been doing it for so many years, there is no value in having this info, but with JR, you still get the most money back for your buck, so I would argue that moving up his horses is a winning strategy. Other jockeys that have the similar talent are Desormeaux, Espinosa, and Carrero, and their ROI's prove it. I find it interesting that the jockeys that concentrate on rating their horses, as opposed to getting them into a fast, comfortable cruising speed, always have the lowest ROI's. Good examples are Robbie Davis, Edgar Prado, Jose Santos, and Alex Solis. Again, with Bailey the info is out there, so he does not present the players with many great wagering oportunities, but when you get a rider change from Solis to Desormeaux, or Santos to Velazquez, great wagering opportunities arise. This does not mean I do not bet Prado or Santos ever; they often come up with brilliant rides in longer distance races, especially on the turf. More often than not, however, I find that their horses must be at least a few lengths faster than JD's or JR's for them to win the race ........... just one guys opinion .... As for the ROTW analysis, I thought it was brilliant. Unfortunately, I did not think GM would fire his best race going a mile and a sixteenth, so I went with the Frankel horse. Tough loss since my only bet was a big double with the horse who won the race before