Quay is probably best out of Pletchers Big 3, but saying he's capable of running the Derby distance because his sire won the Belmont and sired a Belmont winner is optimistic. My recollection of Thunder Gulch's Belmont is that he beat Star Standard in 2.32 and nothing was in that race. Theres Belong to Me in that pedigree too. He may win, certainly won't say he can't win, but on pedigree hes no slam dunk to be running well at the end of the Derby. Pletcher has said that he believes he will be running closer to the pace fresh. I've seen no evidence of that in his races. Its not clear you can take to the bank what Pletcher is saying. 8 weeks off before a grueling race is 8 weeks off before a grueling/testing race, even if really bred for it. If he gets beat by less than 10, he will better his last appearance at Churchill and I guess you could say Pletcher's modus operandi worked.

flushedstraight Wrote:
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> What dilemma?
>
> Cowtown Cat is this year's version of Pollards
> Vision. Wonderkid Fernando earns future dividends
> from Todd Inc. as he uses him up ensuring a fast
> pace.
>
> Florida champ Scat Daddy looks less like 06 champ
> Barbaro and more like 05 chump High Fly. At the
> eighth pole he'll be looking for a place to hidey
> hidey ho.
>
> Any Given Saturday will be value and adds spice to
> the exotics. He'll be in full gear late for
> Garrett the great, who seems to possess a
> combination of the best riding skills of recent
> retirees Pat, Jerry, and Gary. Garrett's main
> problem is that he doesn't ride first call for
> Todd Inc.
>
> Circular Quay, who, if he ran in the Wood and
> toyed with them as he's capable of, would be 3-1
> in here. Instead, he's got an 8 week break that's
> being perceived as a negative, even though it's by
> design from the most successful operation in
> racing. Never started at over 8.5? I'll take a
> positive view as he's out of a Belmont winner that
> also sired one. Golden rail or no golden rail, his
> BC was better than it looked, and if the outside
> was tiring when the juve was run it was much
> better. Regretting not taking 9-1 in KDFW pool
> 3... hoping to get at least 7-1 on race day. The
> more people that disagree the better.