Non-contenders (Less than 1% chance each, No price good enough to bet)
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#2 Zanjero 30/1 ML
#4 Storm in May 30/1 ML
#5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50/1 ML
#11 Bwana Bull 50/1 ML
#15 Tiago 15/1 ML
#19 Dominican 20/1 ML

Outsiders (3-5% chance each, would need 30-1 or more to bet)
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#1 Sedgefield 50/1 ML (Liked his Lanesend pace, Might like extra distance)
#9 Liquidity 30/1 ML (Liked his LA Derby, if he can get up front with a slow pace, might be able to hang on for a superfecta ticket)
#10 Teuflesberg 30/1 ML (Has some speed, but not sure about the distance here)
#13 Sam P. 20/1 ML (Gonna need a step forward but like him better than Tiago)
#20 Great Hunter 15/1 (I kind of like him and if he could of gotten a better post, I would of thrown him in the contenders group below. That's a long way out there and favorite running style might find him 5-7 wide around the turns. Bad draw)

Contenders (8-10% chance each, would need 15-1 or more to bet).
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#2 Curlin 7/2 ML (Overrated, Ragged pace in Ark Derby and Rebel, not proven much yet)
#6 Cowtown Cat 20/1 ML (Decent Ill Derby. Don't forget War Emblem. Like his workouts too)
#12 Nobiz Like Showbiz 8/1 ML (Nice Wood but they were dragging there at the end, could factor here though with good pace setup)
#14 Scat Daddy 10/1 ML (Benefited from pace in Fountain of Youth, could do the same here)
#16 Circular Quay 8/1 ML (Not a bad looking horse but again, will need perfect pace to have a good shot at winning, and even then there are others with similar running styles he'll have to battle with if it sets up that way
#18 Any Given Saturday 12/1 ML (Ditto)


Major Players (12-15% chance, Would still want atleast 10-1 to bet)
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#7 Street Sense 4/1 ML (Looks ready for a big effort here 3rd off layoff.. Very impressed what he did in Tampa vs Any Given Saturday as well as coming off the slow pace in on the poly at Keeneland. Major contender but likely to be bet and offers no value in a 20-horse race full of pitfalls)

#8 Hard Spun 15/1 ML (Could be a potential freakhorse. Love the Lanesend and Lecomte races.. Very very impressive numbers. Might need a favorable setup but he's the speed in this race and the speed is always live to be a factor, even at 10f. Distance breeding is pretty encouraging to make it all the way. If he can rate, he'll be there at the end)

#17 Stormello 30/1 ML (Ahhh.. My big sleeper. Absolutely AWESOME Fountain of Youth race.. Love every bit of it.. Set some wild fractions and just got caught at the wire by Scat Daddy. Florida Derby effort was to be expected. The 5 weeks off here is PERFECT IMO. Norfolk G2 back in October was impressive as well and shows the horse has lots of talent. Set that blistering pace in the BC Juvenile at Churchill as well. Has two 58.1 works under his belt.. Lots of speed and has demonstrated abililty to use it tactically. Desormeaux knows what this is all about and he's got another live big price under him. Would of liked a better post but he has the speed to get out there and get a good spot for the turn).


Going to be playing a win ticket certaintly on Stormello, perhaps Hard Spun if he can keep the price on him.

$2 Exacta ticket 7,8,17 w/ 2,6,7,8,12,14,16,17,18 ($48)
$2 Exacta ticket 2,6,7,8,12,14,16,17,18 w/ 7,8,17 ($48)

I'll figure out some Tri combination later maybe, but could get expensive in the Derby and I'm not looking to blow that much this year ;).


Alright, bash away!! :-D