Some of the preparation issues are a problem for me.

I'm not a believer in any of the hard rules that some people try to apply to the Derby. But I do think it has some unique characteristics because of the large field, noisey crowd, rough race development, 10F, and other things. So all else being equal I tend to prefer a more seasoned horse with experience in a big field, racing inside/between horses, on and off the pace, overcoming minor trouble etc...

A couple of the faster horses are lacking in that area.

A couple of them may be better/worse on Poly, but it's not clear to me.

I hadn't even noticed your insight about so few new tops being made, but I'd have to ask if you think that can change now that there are more horses coming in with only 2 preps?

I sort of like 3rd off a layoff for producing peaks as long as I know the trainer doesn't usually try to bring them back at their best (which is unlikely for a Derby prospect anyway).