David:

One other point worth emphasizing is that by the time May comes around, many of the 3yos in his barn are over the top. It is fair to ask whether they have been pushed too hard, certainly so relative to those in other barns. One of the many illuminating bits of information buried in the TG runs-based stats is that Pletcher's 3yos in the April-June period pair or run new tops 45% of the time. That is a very low rate for barns filled with talented 3yos. (For example, Tagg's 3yos run new tops or pair at the rate of 58% for the same period.) Pletcher's 4yos in the same April-June period also pair or run new tops 45% of the time, although the distribution between tops and pairs differs. There is just no good reason why the 4yos in your barn are just as likely to pair or better than the 3yos in your barn, given the developmental trajectory of most thoroughbreds. In fact, Pletcher's "spring 3yo top/pair rate" was the second lowest (Jerry Hollendorfer gets the prize) of all the trainers in this year's Derby.