You're only as Good as your last wagered Race (737 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 11, 2007 07:19AM
spa Wrote:
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> Chuckles, you don't understand the game. Bounce is
> the factor...........
Spa, regarding that contention, I did have a 2 year Derby drought, though now having won with Street Sense I have cashed the Derby 4 of the last 6 years. Since 2002 however, I have cashed every single Preakness run. Would you not agree that kind of record in the second leg of the Triple Crown indicates that the individual is one extremely lucky squirrel or that he knows something about bounce?
The first thing you have to factor when betting the bounce is whether the figure you're going to project bounce upon is as fast as indicated. In that regard Tgraph provides Wide and Time for you. But, they don't factor Not Going Wide and they don't factor path bias either.
One other observation. A trainer is like a handicapper. When a trainer is mentioned as Great, you not only Count his Derby wins, you count his Preakness and Belmont wins as well. Lukas for instance has Codex, Tank's Prospect, Tabasco Cat, Timber Country and Charismatic. If you accept Tgraphs Derby numbers at face value you have to conclude that Pletcher is skipping the race with four horses that by all appearances are not sitting upon traditional big race bounce efforts. My personal opinion is that those efforts were even a little less than what Tgraph has indicated, but thats grist for another debate. So is Pletcher avoiding the Preakness because of Bounce? or is Pletcher skipping the Preakness for any number of other reasons? Including a need to "recharge" horses that may now be blood tested?