Re: 3 YR OLD STUDY- SIMPLY BRILLIANT (604 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: May 17, 2007 02:53PM
"Very interesting study, but just from memory,quite a few of those horses won their next start despite the lesser fig."
IMO, if you are looking at peformance extremes and small samples, you have to be careful you aren't isolating a biased sample to begin with. IMO, quite a few of those horses earned their fast figure under very favorable circumstances that were unlikely to be duplicated.
I think whenever they run that fast, it can't be as likely that they will duplicate it as a more average performance for a top 3YO at this time of year.
But I'd still analyze it on a case by case basis. I think horses that earned their very fast figures under legit circumstances and with a history of fast figures are way more likely to duplicate them than if they were earned with soft leads, on biased tracks, on sloppy race tracks etc..