[size=large][color=#9900CC]high roller wrote:

>your correct silver charm, but do you need to know that at 7-5?[/color]

[b][size=large]First off, Street Sense will not be 7-5. If he’s not Odds On it will be a minor miracle.[/size][/b]

[color=#9900CC]Uncle Buck wrote:

>One thing that stands out to me after quickly glancing over that study is just how special both Smarty Jones and Bernardini were! The owners of those two caught lightning in a bottle that's for sure.[/color]

[b]The part of the study that appears a little thin pertains to Negative numbers run by Triple Crown Classic winners. Afleet Alex was a victim, but he bucked the trends as well, Smarty Jones likewise. Why might that be a factor? Triple Crown winners have traditionally been through the Grind and emerged as special horses in their class. Obviously Barbaro, a TC event winner, reinforces the study, but at a glance the Negative to Bounce angle in the TC Events is not absolute. Afleet Alex did get sick pre Derby and run on the heavy part of the Derby track late and Smarty Jones got involved in Belmont pace issues. Granted, they may have pulled those races off despite the adversity if they had not run so hard in their prior.

Congrats on the Derby win Buck, in elation one states it was easy, but in reflecting a couple days subsequent after reading, reviewing charts and video, one realizes the factors which developed to allow the fastest horse to win indicate it wasn’t nearly the Slam Dunk one thought it was and a little luck played a role. One must always be lucky in this game. Some things improve the prospects of luck. Good Figures are one of those things.

Regarding the ongoing love affair with TAP and the infatuation with Circular Way at least in the Preakness the odds should not be disqualifying. I’m guessing he will go off at about 6-1 and third or fourth choice, which is quite a change from the first 8 races of his career. Still, he may be sitting upon an 0-2 ( Tgraph says No to that) and a change of plans to now run him in 2 weeks with the prospects of Drug Testing looming, once again there has to be a degree of concern regarding his state of readiness. This is a small horse that took time post Louisana Derby and now they rush him right back. In his favor is that Circular Way does not run in the traditional manner of recent era Pletcher runners. He comes with a late run and it may be he’s not as medicated. Still, a very risky bet with first three finishers of the Derby here and looking like better horses irrespective of bounce. If Bounce or X is a factor why shouldn’t this one X to the moon? Because he will be higher odds?

Lastly, I believe I am now on 2nd or 3rd chance Double Secret Probation. It started with a statement of fact in which I used a Politically Incorrect Term. Fully understanding that I am not an insulated Jerry Falwell and that the hosts of this site need to be hospitable to all in the horse realm and that those I made comments about are certainly involved in that realm, I'll do my best to not let my personal biases impact the reputation of their concern. In my defense I would like to point out that I truly do like muslims and don't believe most of the falsehoods told about them.

The tolerant folks take what I say with a grain of salt. After all, I once keyed a wager upon Teuflesberg.[/b][size=large][/size][/size]