I couldn't agree with you any more. In fact, I've been saying the same thing in posts on other subjects.

All my research indicates that even an average pace for the class is a bit demanding on the front runners. By that I mean, if a front runner and closer earn the same exact figure in the typical race, the front runner almost always has run the better race because he used more energy early. If the pace was fast, it's a certainty. You don't always get to see that in the rematch because the FR will face an average pace next time too. However, you can see this kind of thing played out when front runners occasionally get loose in moderately slow paces. They run more tops than you would expect randomly.

There is no doubt in my mind that Hard Spun is either closer in ability to SS than it looks or better than him off their respective Derby performances.

However, as we all know, handicapping is not limited to measuring past performances. One or both horses may not duplicate their recent race and for all we know the Preakness pace will be more testing on HS than the Derby pace.

Regardless, for those worried about bouncing, IMO Hard Spun ran a huge Derby.