These are terrific posts. Thanks to all.

While I have great respect for the type of analysis Thorograph figures allow, I think Jerry Brown would agree that both the figures and the analysis they encourage is subjective to some extent. In relation to this past Derby, I believe I saw something of greater importance than the figures...and I admit in advance this is completely a subjective observation.

I've been a breeder-owner for over 20 years and watching horse races for nearly 50. Regardless of the open path Street Sense had, his move past horses in the backstretch was relentless, but more important it was easy...one of the best middle moves I've seen...comparable to some of Secretariat's.

The fact this happened in the backstretch is important to my way of thinking. Serious contenders and their jockeys begin their drive moving towards the final turn and are accelerating to the best of their abilities at this point in the race. SS passed them so quickly that I, subjectively speaking, conclude he is a very special animal. A lot better than the others. Also, he was running for fun in the stretch...they didn't squeeze the lemon...didn't have to.

My guess is you will not see them take him back in the Preakness, rather I expect him to stalk the pace because his connections know that Hard Spun will not be gunning from the outset (because Lucas has FFC in there to do that) and will, therefore be more dangerous at the finish. Nafzger won't want HS streaking off to an insurmountable lead once Lucas' horse folds.

If I'm right about SS, he will win this race, but not until deep stretch and he will spend more time in a parked out position.

The only question in my mind about the Preakness is about the drug testing setup at Pimlico. Is it as tough as the setup they had at Churchill? If not, you can expect to see Curlin run bigger and perhaps TP's entries too.