If nominal GDP grows at 5%-6%, the betting handle should also grow by that much because incomes are rising just as fast.

On track attendence growth is a good sign, but I think that's probably a reflection of Del Mar's growing popularity as a combination racetrack/vacation spot. I'd bet most of the new fans have never even heard the term polytrack.

I think it's going to take some more time to sort through all the numbers.

Personally, I've made less than 5 bets on Poly/Cushion etc... tracks so far.

I still handicap some of the races, but I refuse to bet serious money until I am cofident I have enough insights to win. There are at least some other people like me that are betting less and others that are quitting the stuff because they are losing badly.

So what we are probably seeing is a general increase in the handle due to growing incomes and the popularity of Del Mar, plus some growth due to the attractiveness of larger fields, minus people like me, miff, and others that have reduced their wagering. (Perhaps Del Mar also has some new offtrack sites feeding money into the track???)

The key will be whether people like me and miff eventually start playing on the new surfaces or whether people that are attracted to the larger fields right now start throwing in the towel because they are getting worse results than on dirt and hate the new style of racing.