I agree with the idea that the race may be bettable because the odds will probably be such that it will make sense to take a stand against Buffy, especially if there's a big labor day tourist crowd & the real Buffy makes another appearance at the trk. What I don't agree with is that Santa Catarina is the one with, as the analysis puts it, the "huge pedigree" for this race. Her sire won the Derby, but so did Sea Hero, the sire of Sea Jewel. More importantly, SJ's dam was 5 for 12 lifetime, including 4 stakes wins. She also ran a 10 when she was 2. A recent BH study proved that there is a significant difference when the dam was a stakes winner, although to be fair the advantage is greater if the stakes were graded & I don't know if that's the case here. In contrast, SC's dam did not race at 2, never won any stakes, & is this is her 1st foal.

The statement that SC has "worked well" since her mdn score assumes a very fast work is a good work. The pt I tried to make in an earlier post, & which G Young made in the drf article, is that this is not always true. My concern would be that SC worked too fast, ala WE. SC made a big jump from her 1st race. I'm not a fan of the indiscriminate application of the bounce theory, especially when we're talking about very lightly raced horses(although they are fillies), but one theory which makes some sense to me is that the chances of a bounce are higher if the horse works the way SC did. SJ's 7f works look good to me & may help her to relax in a race which should produce a blistering pace. IMHO, at 8/5 SC is not hard to bet against at all.