I have to respectfully disagree with your pedigree analysis. You really can't draw comparisons based on the race record of the sire; if you could Lil E Tee would be a better sire than Mr. Prospector. Pedigree of the sire wins out in the breeding shed which is why a horse like Silver Charm stands for much less than Coronado's Quest. However, in this case, we can actually just look at the sires record. Unbridled was a truly elite sire (Grindstone, Unbridled Song, Manistique, etc.) whereas Sea Hero failed and was sold to interests who currently stand him in Turkey. The only "big horse" he got was Desert Hero, who got that reputation based on one big race (beating a field which didn't turn out to be to spectacular) and never really repeated it before succumbing to EPM. Santa Catarina is not out of stakes winner but she is out of a Storm Cat mare whereas Sea Jewels out of a Stop The Music mare which isn't bad but isn't great. Again, pedigree beats race record. The bottom line: Sea Jewel has a nice pedigree, Santa Catarina has a huge pedigree. I think she'll be tough to beat but I think Mac Melody deserves some consideration just cause Hess is very good with his first out Europeans and I don't know how much SC beat last time. She got beat pretty good by Voodoo's Sister who is a nice filly for Nick Canani but who got beat bad by Buffy last time (both fillies had excuses, Voodoo stumbled and SC was steadied) but I still think SC has to prove she belongs in this class. Good luck.