TGJB,

I don't disagree with anything you said, but even you would have to concede that coming into a Grade 1 race off a 14 week layoff against a solid and fit opponent, having missed works due to lameness, having 2 setbacks due to a fever, not acting right in the stretch run, and coming out of the race with a fracture, all indicate that it's highly unlikely she was at her best Saturday.

You sort of made it sound like pairing her back efforts indicates she ran as well as expected or to her current ability.

While that's certainly some possiblity, it seems like a pretty remote one to me.

This filly was/is a very lightly raced horse. She was developing nicely when she capped it off with that huge performance in the Belmont. Not that I was expecting her to run that way again. In fact I thought it was a mortal lock that she would be short because the goal was the BC and she had all those problems (though I thought she might win anyway).

I just think that tying the races of a developing 3YO in the spring to her race Saturday (many months later after she already demonstrated more) as a "logical" pair (if that's what you were implying) is not right. To me it was the accidental result of a superior and developing racehorse being short and having problems. She was also clearly winning with something in reserve in some of those spring races.