Re: A League of Her Own (405 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: September 19, 2007 09:18PM
TGJB,
I didn't expect her to run to her "current" top (whatever that is) either, but I didn't use her prior speed figures as an indication of what I thought her current top was.
To me, prior to the Belmont she was a lightly raced developing spring 3YO that was winning with "speed in reserve". With the additional passage of time, I thought it was very likely that her "current top" was better than all the figures she had earned prior to the Belmont and maybe even equal to the Belmont.
Like I said, because of all those other training issues, I didn't expect her to earn her top Saturday. But I did think that a performance somewhat better than anything other than the Belmont was fairly likely and that she could improve further from there.
I'm not sure what the proper odds line was on the race. I didn't play because I didn't see enough value on the winner. I am just making the point that I think RTR is the better horse and could have won despite all the problems in her training and the probable trips if she didn't fracture her leg. (we can't know for sure)
Basically it took everything that could possibly go wrong plus more just to beat her a 1/2 length. That says something about what the probabilities actually were. Trips don't always turn out exactly the way they figure and suspect horses don't always fracture their legs. They both just happened this time.